Rolling Return
What it means: Rolling returns show how performance changes over overlapping time frames, for example, every 12-month period in the past five years.
In plain terms: It’s a way to see consistency. Is your investment delivering steady returns over time?
Example: If every year from 2018 to 2023 delivers a positive 12-month return, that’s a good sign. If some periods are stellar and others tank, that shows inconsistency.
Bonds vs Equities vs Crypto:
- Bonds: Usually show very steady rolling returns.
- Equities: May vary with market cycles.
- Cryptos: Wild swings, one year’s huge gains could become next year’s losses.
How to use it: Rolling return is great for spotting consistency, or lack thereof. Combine it with rolling volatility to see when stable performance is paired with stable behaviour. Investors should feel comfortable when rolling returns gently trend upward or stay clustered around their average. Sharp declines are red flags warranting closer inspection.